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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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